000ABNT20 KNHC 241729TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Adams

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 24 Oct 2026 22:29:02 GMT

000ABPZ20 KNHC 241742TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Vance, located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.Western Central Pacific:Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located near or just west of the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll, has become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions could support some continued slow development while the system crosses the Dateline and moves generally eastward to east-northeastward.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.$$Forecaster Beven

Hurricane for

• Summary for Hurricane Vance (EP2/EP222026)
  

  ...VANCE WEAKENS SOME MORE AS IT CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM CST Sat Oct 24 the center of Vance was located near 13.3, -103.3 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
  

Hurricane Vance

• Hurricane Vance Public Advisory Number 14
  

  Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Oct 24 2026 000
  WTPZ32 KNHC 242039
  TCPEP2
   
  BULLETIN
  Hurricane Vance Advisory Number  14
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
  300 PM CST Sat Oct 24 2026
   
  ...VANCE WEAKENS SOME MORE AS IT CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
   
   
  SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
  ----------------------------------------------
  LOCATION...13.3N 103.3W
  ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
  ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
  PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
   
   
  WATCHES AND WARNINGS
  --------------------
  There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
   
  Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
  progress of Vance. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for
  portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight or on Sunday.
   
   
  DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
  ----------------------
  At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Vance was located
  near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 103.3 West. Vance is moving
  toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slow motion
  toward the north-northwest is expected to continue through Monday.
   
  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) 
  with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is expected through Sunday 
  night. Some re-intensification is possible on Monday.
   
  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
  center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
  (240 km).
   
  The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
   
   
  HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
  ----------------------
  RAINFALL: Through next Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 4 to 6
  inches with isolated higher totals around 10 inches across Colima
  and western portions of Michoacán and Jalisco. This rainfall may
  produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
  along steep terrain.
   
  For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance,
  please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
  available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf.
   
  SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast
  of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into
  next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
  and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
  weather office.
   
   
  NEXT ADVISORY
  -------------
  Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
   
  $$
  Forecaster Beven

  ]]>
• Hurricane Vance Forecast Advisory Number 14
  

  Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2026 000
  WTPZ22 KNHC 242038
  TCMEP2
   
  HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
  2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2026
   
  HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 103.3W AT 24/2100Z
  POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
   
  PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   5 KT
   
  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
  64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
  50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
  34 KT.......130NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.
  4 M SEAS....210NE 210SE 210SW 180NW.
  WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
  MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
   
  REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 103.3W AT 24/2100Z
  AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 103.2W
   
  FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.0N 103.6W
  MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
  64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
  50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
  34 KT...130NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.9N 104.0W
  MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
  64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
  50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
  34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.6N 104.4W
  MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
  64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
  50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
  34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N 104.6W
  MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
  64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
  50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
  34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.4N 104.8W
  MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
  64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
  50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
  34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.0N 104.9W
  MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
  64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
  50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
  34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
   
  EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
  ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
   
  OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 18.1N 105.2W
  MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
  50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
  34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
   
  OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.3N 105.6W
  MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
  34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
   
  REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 103.3W
   
  NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
   
  $$
  FORECASTER BEVEN

  ]]>
• Hurricane Vance Forecast Discussion Number 14
  

  Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Oct 24 2026 000
  WTPZ42 KNHC 242040
  TCDEP2
   
  Hurricane Vance Discussion Number  14
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
  300 PM CST Sat Oct 24 2026
  
  Vance has become significantly less organized since the last 
  advisory due to a combination of cold water near the center and 
  increasing southwesterly shear. Microwave data indicates that the 
  eyewall has broken open, with the remaining convection limited to 
  north of the center. In addition, visible imagery shows the 
  low-level center to be near or a little south of the southern edge 
  of the convective mass. The various satellite intensity estimates 
  have dropped, and based on them the initial intensity is lowered to 
  80 kt.  This could be quite generous, as the current structure does 
  not look much like a hurricane.
   
  The intensity forecast is still problematic, but perhaps a little 
  less so than earlier. Vance is likely to weaken during the next 
  12-18 h as it crosses a pool of colder water with temperatures near 
  27C that has been upwelled by several previous tropical cyclones, 
  while at the same time it experiences at least moderate 
  southwesterly shear.  Beyond that time, the center is expected to 
  move over sea surface temperatures near 29C closer to the coast of 
  Mexico. This could allow intensification if the shear is light 
  enough and the storm structure is still good enough to allow it. The 
  GFS and ECMWF continue show a period of reduced, but still marginal, 
  shear that could allow some intensification, and based on this and 
  trends in the guidance slight re-intensification is shown at 48 h. 
  By the end of the forecast period, increasing shear is likely to 
  cause Vance to steadily weaken. It is still possible that Vance 
  could weaken more than forecast before reaching warmer water and 
  that the shear may be too strong to allow re-intensification after 
  36 h. The new intensity forecast has major downward adjustments from 
  the previous forecast.
  
  The initial motion remains north-northwestward or 340/5 kt.  Vance 
  is being steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge over eastern 
  Mexico, and it is approaching a large mid-latitude trough over the 
  western United States and northwestern Mexico. While neither of 
  these features will change much during the next few days, Vance is 
  likely to move into an area of lighter steering currents near the 
  base of the trough and slow its forward motion during the next 
  24 or so.  The track forecast beyond that time is dependent on the 
  cyclone's strength and vertical structure. A weaker system that 
  shears apart like shown in the UKMET and Canadian is likely to move 
  west-northwestward to northwestward before resuming a more northerly 
  motion, while a stronger and vertically deeper system is likely to 
  continue slowly northward or north-northwestward.  The track 
  guidance envelope has shifted westward since the previous advisory, 
  and the new forecast track has been nudged westward as well. 
  Additional westward adjustments to the track may be necessary if 
  Vance continues to lose organization.
  
  
  Key Messages:
   
  1. Due to the uncertainties in both the track and intensity
  forecasts, it is too early to say what wind and storm surge
  impacts Vance may cause along the coast of Mexico. Interests in
  southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of the
  hurricane.
   
  2. Heavy rainfall associated with slow-moving Hurricane Vance will 
  impact the western coast of Mexico from Michoacán to Jalisco during 
  much of next week. This rainfall may produce life-threatening 
  flooding and mudslides across Colima and western portions of 
  Michoacán and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.
   
   
  FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
   
  INIT  24/2100Z 13.3N 103.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
   12H  25/0600Z 14.0N 103.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
   24H  25/1800Z 14.9N 104.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
   36H  26/0600Z 15.6N 104.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
   48H  26/1800Z 16.0N 104.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
   60H  27/0600Z 16.4N 104.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
   72H  27/1800Z 17.0N 104.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
   96H  28/1800Z 18.1N 105.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  120H  29/1800Z 19.3N 105.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
   
  $$
  Forecaster Beven

  ]]>
• Hurricane Vance Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
  

  Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2026 000
  FOPZ12 KNHC 242039
  PWSEP2
                                                                      
  HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14                 
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026               
  2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2026                                            
                                                                      
  AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
  13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
  80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                      
  Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
     PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                      
  WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                      
  CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
     ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
     ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
     ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
  FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
      OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
          AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
     (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
          18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
  THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
  64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                      
                                                                      
    - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                      
                 FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
    TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
  PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
               06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                      
  FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                      
  ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
   
  15N 105W       34 19  38(57)   8(65)   2(67)   2(69)   X(69)   X(69)
  15N 105W       50  X   8( 8)   9(17)   3(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
  15N 105W       64  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
   
  BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
   
  MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  14(20)   7(27)   1(28)
  MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
  MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
   
  L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
   
  ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
   
  $$                                                                  
  FORECASTER BEVEN

  ]]>
• Hurricane Vance Graphics
  

  
  
  
   
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026 21:22:43 GMT
  ]]>