Norman Forecast Discussion

845
FXUS64 KOUN 091105
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
605 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- Ongoing heatwave continues through Wednesday with triple digit
  heat indices and lows well above normal.

- Cooler temperatures and scattered to numerous storms expected
  late Wednesday into Thursday. Strong to severe storms possible
  across northern Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Heat tries to rebound this weekend with low rain chances each
  day.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

One more day of heat before a cold front finally brings us some
relief. As on previous days, we`ll see high temperatures in the
100-105 range with heat indices largely in the 105-110 range.
Highest heat indices will be in the southeast where moisture is
the greatest, contrasted with drier air in northwest Oklahoma.

A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma this afternoon
(between 1-4pm). Unfortunately, we`re not likely to see any
temperature impacts until after peak heating. Scattered storms are
expected to fire along and near the front (CAMs depict a
scattered mess including some isolated activity ahead of the front
and areas of scattered storms lagging behind the front) and
progress southeastward through the evening and overnight, reaching
the I-44 corridor around daybreak on Thursday.

Weak shear will limit storm organization, but a few strong to
severe gusts cannot be ruled out during the afternoon across
northern Oklahoma with modest instability in place. Forecast DCAPE
values of up to 1500 J/kg could support gusts up to 70mph, though
limited instability and messy storm modes will keep the
probability of such gusts low.

Rainfall amounts will be splotchy due to the scattered nature of
convection. Areas north of I-40 have a 50-70% chance of seeing at
least 0.25 inches by sunrise Thursday.

While Thursday morning lows ahead of the front in southern
Oklahoma and north Texas will likely be in the mid to upper 70s
again, northern Oklahoma could see temperatures drop as low as the
upper 60s and lower 70s.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue into Thursday with
chances shifting southward through the day. Rainfall amounts south
of I-40 will have a 20-50% chance of exceeding 0.25 inches. When
it is all said and done, the axis of highest QPF is expected to
run through north central Oklahoma (0.3 to 1.5 inches as indicated
by the interquartile range).

The front and associated rainfall / cloud cover will bring much
needed relief from the heat to much of the area. Areas north of
I-40 will likely stay below 90 degrees (60-80% confidence), while
southern Oklahoma and north Texas are likely to stay below 100
degrees (60-80% confidence).

By Friday, the front starts to wash out and southerly surface flow
looks likely to resume. This will bring us back into the 90s for
much of the area and lower 100s for southwest Oklahoma and north
Texas. We will maintain low rain chances (10-20%) as some members
depict a wave coming around the edge of the ridge.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Nearby surface ridging and southerly surface flow will keep
temperatures hot over the weekend. Upper 90s to lower 100s appear
likely with some risk of reaching heat advisory criteria across
parts of southern Oklahoma and north Texas (particularly on
Saturday).

Being on the edge of the upper high, we will maintain at least
low PoPs, particularly in northern and eastern Oklahoma.
Deterministic models have shown consistency in depicting an MCS
Saturday night, though its currently forecast trajectory would
mainly impact eastern Oklahoma.

High confidence in hot temperatures and low rain chances now
extends through Monday afternoon. After this, confidence drops off
dramatically with the possible arrival of a cold front sometime
early to mid week next week. Models vary greatly in timing and
strength of the front. Continued hot and dry weather remains the
more likely scenario (70-80%), though the outlier solutions would
bring substantial cooling.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

VFR conditions will continue areawide into the mid-afternoon today
before at least low potential for changeable/lowered category
arrives, and ebbs southward towards daybreak Thursday.

Scattered convection, posing a risk for erratic-gusty winds and
brief vis reduction, is initially expected this afternoon (after
~19-21Z) across portions of western and northern Oklahoma. Chances
for rain/storms look to shift slowly southward into early
Thursday morning.

A period of variable wind direction is likely behind a slow-
moving/convectively-modified front across northern Oklahoma during
the overnight hours into Thursday morning.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 100  75  86  70 /  10  40  90  30
Hobart OK        103  75  90  71 /  10  20  70  30
Wichita Falls TX 102  77  94  73 /  10  10  60  10
Gage OK          101  68  86  66 /  50  70  70  30
Ponca City OK    102  71  85  67 /  30  90  80  20
Durant OK        101  76  96  74 /   0   0  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...09

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion