Amarillo Forecast Discussion

838
FXUS64 KAMA 261055
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
555 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Hot to extreme heat persists through the rest of July.
  Temperatures may even reach 110 degrees for some locations on
  Monday.

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms exist for the
  northwest Panhandles through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

One of the key factors, other than high pressure, that is
contributing to our extensive heat wave is poor overnight
temperature recovery. It has been talked about previously, but these
continued temperatures will exacerbate heat risk leading to an
extreme heat risk (4/4) for much of the CWA through the entire short
term period. Overnight lows tonight will drop to the upper 60s at
best for our northwest zones. Elsewhere, lows will range in the
lower to mid 70s. This will allow afternoon temperatures to easily
rise above 100 degrees, and the eastern combined Panhandles
(alongside Palo Duro Canyon) are favored to experience temperatures
and heat index values over 105 degrees. In fact, both ambient
temperatures and heat indices may reach up to 109 degrees once again
in our northeast zones. This is tentatively just shy of Extreme Heat
Warning criteria, but higher confidence for extreme heat is favored
tomorrow while temperatures today are more marginal.

Monday morning lows are forecast to be in the lower to upper 70s
areawide. Some locations may even stay near 80 degrees all night
before temperatures rise again during the day. Hot to extreme
temperatures are expected during the afternoon. Currently, the
Canadian River Valley, Palo Duro Canyon, and the northeast combined
Panhandles all have the potential to meet or exceed 110 degrees. For
the rest of the FA, temperatures should have little trouble reaching
or rising above 105 degrees. An areawide Heat Advisory is
anticipated, but there is still some uncertainty on the extent of
+110 degree temperatures for an Extreme Heat Warning. Heat index
values are not expected to exceed the actual temperatures tomorrow,
due to dewpoints being lower across the region.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

No major changes to note in the extended period. Headlines of
impactful and consecutive heat continue as the upper ridge remains
strong aloft. Long range models are showing a bit more consistency
in the eventual westward movement of the H500 high. However,
temperatures are not currently expected to experience a substantial
shift for the first week of August. Stronger upper level forcing is
required to suppress the ridge, and guidance does not show this
occurring any time soon.

In the meantime, hot +100 degree highs continue across much of the
CWA for the next 7 days. The hottest days of the week look to occur
at the forefront due to the position of the high pressure center
being almost directly overhead. Temperatures are forecast to undergo
a small downtrend towards the end of the week. High could
potentially fall below 100 for many locations on Saturday, as long
as temperature trends hold. If the upper high takes longer to
transition west, triple digit heat could persist well into August.

Moisture continues to be somewhat lacking in the long term period.
Like previous forecasts, northwest flow could eventually allow
precipitation to move into the northwest combined Panhandles as
convection transitions off the high terrain. PoPs are still limited
under this regime, as the placement of the upper high will influence
the coverage of showers and storms in our area.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the
next 24 hours. Very hot temperatures are present across the
panhandles which is leading to increased density altitude at all
terminals.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-
     008>010-014-015-019-020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...98

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion