Amarillo Forecast Discussion

996
FXUS64 KAMA 091153
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
653 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- A cold front is bringing increased chances for storms to the
  area today through Thursday. Gusty winds, lightning, and heavy
  rainfall being the main hazards from the storms.

- Above average temperatures are expected to continue most days
  over the next week, but cold fronts could provide occassional
  heat relief.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

The high pressure system across the southern plains is being
pushed to the south as a weather system pushes into the region
from the north. This is actively passing a cold front slowly
across the panhandles that will then likely stall this morning.
Where the front stall is key in determining exactly where the
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening. The better
environment for the storms will most likely be to the north of
the cold frontal boundary. The reason for this is the mid level
cooling will be greater to the north of the boundary leading to
overall more unstable conditions. This allows the north of the
boundary to have CAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/Kg while south of
the boundary it is a more modest 500 to 1000 K/Kg. To compound
this the axis of better moisture to fuel thunderstorms will also
be to the north of the boundary as seen with Theta-E advection.
North of the boundary precipitable water will be a 1.5 to 1.75
inches while south of the boundary has 1.1 to 1.25 inches. What
all this boils down to is north of the cold frontal boundary the
environment is both more unstable and has better moisture to fuel
more extensive and stronger storm development. To the south of
the boundary the environment has less instability and moisture to
work with leading to less and weaker storms. So the big question
is now where will the cold frontal boundary stall? Well, it most
likely is going to do so in the southern Texas panhandle in a SW
to NE fashion. This would initially leave the better thunderstorm
environment across the central Texas panhandles and north into
the Oklahoma panhandle. This is reflected in the medium (40-65%)
chance for rain showers and thunderstorms across this region for
this afternoon. South of the boundary chances start much lower at
a low (10-25%) chance for rain showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. The rain showers and thunderstorms will likely flair
with daytime heating allowing for an early afternoon start time of
around noon to 2 pm. In the northern environment there is a low
chance for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. The main
threat from such storms will be damaging wind gusts, although
large hail cannot be ruled out. Further the high moisture will
allow for heavy rainfall that can cause flooding mainly in the
northern environment.

During the evening the cold front pick up in movement again
pushing south opening the whole of the panhandles to a low to
medium chance (20-60%) for rain showers and thunderstorms.
Elevated instability associated with the weather system will allow
the rain showers and thunderstorms to then persist through the
overnight hours and into Thursday morning. The threat for strong
to severe thunderstorms during this time will be less with the
weaker over instability coupled with a stable surface environment.
However high moisture will still be present so the threat of
heavy rainfall will remain. The darkness make in fact make the
flooding threat higher due to it being harder to detect flooding
at night. Then by later Thursday morning the rain shower and
thunderstorm activity will begin to wane somewhat. This however is
just a break in the activity as with further daytime heating an
additional round of rain showers and thunderstorms has a low to
medium (15-50%) chance of occurring across the panhandles.
Moisture will still remain high across the panhandles allowing for
continued heavy rainfall and the threat of flooding. An increase
in instability with the heating will once again open the door for
stronger storms to occur. The threat from such storms will most
likely be strong downburst winds and large hail. During the
evening the weather system pushes off to the northeast leading to
a decrease in the instability and moisture. This will see the rain
showers and thunderstorms activity dwindle and then finally cease
during the overnight going into Friday morning. The passage of the
weather system will bring a further benefit of cooler temperatures
across the panhandles for Thursday. Still it will remain hotter
than normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Friday, the departure of the weather system to the northeast
allows the broad high pressure system across southern CONUS to
build back across the southern plains. This will likely bring a
small stint of hot and dry conditions to the panhandles with
the potential for triple digit highs.

Come the weekend the high pressure starts to shift back out of the
southern plains as a deepening large scale weather system pushes
southeast across western CONUS. This action will allow for a few
small scale weather system to pass across the southern plains
during the weekend. The passage of these small scale system will
bring a low (10-30%) chance for rain showers and thunderstorms to
the panhandles. The overall quantity of moisture with these system
is most likely to be low so the amount of rainfall during this
time will also most likely be low. Even with the passage of the
weather system it will most likely remain hot with highs in the
90s to low 100s.

The main weather system is most likely to push into the southern
plains early next work week. This would bring more substantial
moisture and instability to the panhandles. This will allow for a
low to medium (20-50%) chance for rain showers and thunderstorms
across the whole of the panhandles. With the higher moisture more
rainfall can occur during this time that has the potential for
meaningful rain accumulations. The passage of the weather system
will have a medium to high chance of bringing cooler temperatures
to the panhandles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Frontal zone stretches from KS southwestward into the northwest
portion of the TX Panhandle this morning...with remnant outflows
from last night`s convection moving through the panhandle. A few
high clouds this morning are over the area but VFR conditions
prevail. By mid day scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and near the front and outflow collisions will
likely spark new development through the afternoon into the
evening. There will likely be impacts at times to the TAF sites
with gusty winds near storms and also the potential for some
visibility restrictions in heavy rains if they do materialize over
the TAF locations.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...54

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion