Dallas Forecast Discussion

559
FXUS64 KFWD 091042
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
542 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms may develop west of Interstate 35 this
  afternoon. Severe weather is not expected.

- Scattered storms are anticipated in North Texas on Thursday,
  with highest chances west of Interstate 35 in the afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures will continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Expect another hot and dry day for most as the upper level ridge
remains planted across the southern CONUS. Afternoon highs are
expected to peak between the mid 90s in Central Texas to around
102 in portions of North Texas. While efficient mixing will occur
this afternoon, humidity will remain high enough to push peak
heat indices between 98-107 degrees. The majority of the region
will remain in a Heat Advisory through 8 PM this evening, outside
of our southwestern counties where heat indices are lowest. A weak
disturbance aloft will be located just to our west this
afternoon, but will allow for isolated shower/storm development
for areas west of the I-35/I-35W corridor this afternoon into
early evening. Any storm that develops could produce gusty,
erratic winds and lightning. Additionally, there remains a low
chance for isolated development in our southeastern Central Texas
counties as the sea breeze moves inland this afternoon. This
activity will be mainly tied to diurnal destabilization, and
should wane in coverage with the loss of daytime heating after
sunset.

The southern CONUS ridge will continue to break down and flatten
as a shortwave disturbance moves west to east across the northern
Plains going into Thursday. This slight pattern shift will allow a
cold front to slide south, eventually stalling between Kansas and
Oklahoma. While the frontal boundary will remain too displaced to
our north to have any impact on temperatures, showers/storms that
develop along the front are expected to move south across the Red
River during the day on Thursday. The highest chances for rain
will be in North Texas during the afternoon hours. Severe weather
is not anticipated with this activity, though more robust storms
could produce gusty erratic winds and lightning. PWATs > 1.75"
will also allow for brief, heavy rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Showers and storms may linger in portions of North Texas through
Friday, but should be more isolated in coverage overall. While the
weakness in the ridge aloft will remain overhead through the
weekend, expect conditions to be mostly dry across North and
Central Texas. The ridge is expected to begin to build westward
early next week, eventually enveloping the region within the
western periphery of the ridge. While we cannot rule out some
isolated convection early next week, expect overall conditions to
remain warm and mostly dry. Expect daily high temperatures through
early next week to remain in the mid 90s to around 100, while
heat indices peak closer to around 100-106. This may indicate a
necessity for additional heat headlines as we enter mid-September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Over the next 24-30 hours, expect VFR and south-southeast winds
to prevail at all TAF sites. The airports should remain dry,
though there will likely be some isolated shower/storm development
west of the I-35 corridor out towards the Big Country this
afternoon/evening. Any storm that develops near the western D10
airports and ACT will have the potential for gusty outflow winds
that move towards the airports. Chances of direct or vicinity
terminal impact at this time are less than 10%, so will not
include any mention in the TAF at this time.

Just outside of the 30 hour extended period tomorrow, scattered
showers/storms are expected to move south from Oklahoma and
approach the D10 airports. This will be covered in future TAF
issuances.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  79  99  79 /  10   0  30  10
Waco                99  76  99  76 /  10   0  10  10
Paris               99  75  98  74 /   0   0  20  20
Denton             100  77  99  75 /  10  10  40  20
McKinney            99  76  98  75 /   0   0  30  20
Dallas             101  80 100  80 /  10   0  30  10
Terrell            100  76  99  75 /   0   0  10  10
Corsicana           99  76  98  76 /   0   0   0  10
Temple              99  74  99  74 /  20   0  10   0
Mineral Wells      100  74  99  73 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion