Tulsa Forecast Discussion

033
FXUS64 KTSA 091130
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

 - Heat headlines remain in effect this afternoon. Cooler
   temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday.

 - Rain/storm chances increase by Wednesday evening and continue
   through Thursday. A few storms may produce strong to severe
   wind gusts this evening across NE OK and NW AR.

 - Periodic rainfall chances continue this weekend into next week
   as additional storm systems influence the region.

 - Localized fire weather concerns will continue today due to the
   worsening drought and well above average temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Quiet conditions are likely through the overnight period with
warm overnight lows in the 70s/lower 80s. Conditions on Wednesday
will be very similar to what occurred on Tuesday, at least
through the first half of the day. A cold front, currently
positioned across the C Plains will sag southward through the day
as the upper ridge flattens. Ahead of the front, temperatures will
once again warm into the lower 100s for most of the forecast
area, with heat indices topping out between 105 and 112 degrees.
The Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning (effective Noon to 7
PM) were maintained with no changes to the configuration at this
time. By late afternoon, the cold front will be on our doorstep,
with increasing convection likely occurring along the boundary.
Thunderstorm chances Wednesday evening are highest along and north
of I-44, with at least a limited threat for severe wind gusts as
sounding profiles remain favorable for downbursts. Locally heavy
rainfall may also occur, though the flash flood threat should
remain low due to dry antecedent conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

The front will continue to make progress southward through
Wednesday night and into Thursday with showers and thunderstorms
spreading over much of E OK and NW AR. The synoptic front will
tend to stall over the area Thursday, though outflow from
thunderstorms may extend well into SE OK. This will complicate the
temperature forecast, with any areas that remain undisturbed
likely still achieving well above average values. Behind the
front, and especially in areas which receive meaningful rainfall,
temperatures will be significantly cooler than previous
days...likely struggling to warm out of the 80s. The current
temperature forecast favors less influence from the front and
associated convection over SE OK and W-Central AR, with highs
still in the mid-upper 90s. If this verifies, additional heat
headlines may be required. With that said, several CAMs show
potential for outflow/cooler temperatures to encompass the entire
CWA, and this evolution will need to be watched closely.
Thunderstorms Thursday afternoon may produce gusty winds,
especially with any clustering that occurs, though severe weather
appears less likely as of now due to poor wind shear.

The front lifts back to the north as a shortwave moves through
the region on Friday. This will prolong low precipitation chances
across the area, with SE OK and NW AR being most favored for
afternoon thunderstorms (20-50 percent chance). Otherwise, drier
weather is forecast on Friday with lessening cloud cover. As a
result, temperatures will recover back into the 90s for the entire
area, with heat indices in the lower 100s possible again.
Meanwhile, a shortwave trough moving across the northern plains
will send another cold front southward Friday night into Saturday,
potentially bringing additional rain chances to portions of the
area, particularly along and north of I-40. Yet another storm
system is forecast to move through the central states early next
week, bringing another front near or into the CWA with additional
rainfall potential.

Temperatures this weekend into next week will be largely driven
by frontal placement and resulting precipitation/cloud coverage.
Model spread increases significantly by the end of the forecast
period with differences of up to 15-20 degrees noted between the
NBM 25th and 75th percentile. The current temperature forecast
leans more towards status quo, with highs in the 90s persisting
into next week. This is better than our latest streak of 100+
weather...but still several degrees above average for mid
September. If the fronts can make more meaningful intrusions into
our area, cooler temperatures can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
South winds may gust near 20 knots at times today, especially at
KTUL. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late tonight
at the northeast Oklahoma sites as a cold front moves into the
area from the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  103  74  87  69 /  10  60  80  20
FSM  104  77  95  73 /  10  10  50  40
MLC  102  77  95  72 /   0  10  60  30
BVO  103  67  85  63 /  20  90  90  10
FYV  102  73  90  66 /  10  10  50  40
BYV  100  74  88  69 /  10  10  60  40
MKO  101  74  90  68 /   0  20  50  30
MIO  101  71  84  67 /  20  80  90  10
F10  102  74  89  68 /   0  20  70  30
HHW   99  75  96  73 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-055>059-063>065-068-069-073-075-154-172-254-276-
     354-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ060>062-066-067-070-071-074-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion