Tulsa Forecast Discussion

361
FXUS64 KTSA 261038
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
538 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

 - Dangerous heat conditions Sunday and likely continue through at
   least Tuesday.

 - Potential minor cool down and some chance of showers and storms
   from mid to late week but uncertainties remain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

00z soundings and 24 hr dewpoint change plots show the westward
expanding drier air along with the increasingly warm thermal
profiles. The result will be hotter temperatures and somewhat
lower afternoon dewpoints which yield similar afternoon heat index
values to those observed on Saturday. As such the heat headlines
have been adjusted to follow a similar footprint.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Monday and Tuesday are likely to see continued dangerous heat
levels. The weak mid week frontal boundary continues to be shown
in guidance with varying degrees of influence both in cooler
temperatures and associated precip chances. A gradual westward
shift of the upper high from mid to late week seems more likely
and this would also keep temps a few degrees cooler. While
forecast details contain uncertainty, the over arching theme of
hot weather through much of the upcoming week remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions are likely to persist through the forecast period
for all sites. Light south winds will increase out of the south-
southwest this afternoon, but generally remain between 5 and 15
kts for most locations. Light south winds return through the
overnight period. Otherwise, FEW to SCT mid and high cloud are
expected today with dry conditions likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  102  81 103  81 /   0   0   0   0
FSM  101  79 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
MLC  100  78 100  79 /   0   0   0   0
BVO  102  79 103  78 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   97  77  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   98  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   99  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   99  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
F10  100  77 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   99  76  99  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-058-059-063>065-068-069-073-075-154-172-254-276-
     354-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ055>057-060>062-066-067-070-071-074-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion