Tulsa Forecast Discussion

111
FXUS64 KTSA 241721
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

 - Above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather will
   continue through early next week.

 - A slight chance of showers arrives Tuesday, with higher rain
   chances into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

High pressure remains centered just east of the area, with warm
southerly flow in place. High temperatures will remain will above
normal, mainly in the low 80s. High clouds will stream into the area
downwind of a storm system stalled across the Desert Southwest, but
no rainfall will occur.

Overnight tonight we will see quiet conditions continue, with low
temperatures mainly in the low 50s with a few high clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Strong high pressure remains in place Sunday with temperatures again
approaching 80 F across the area along with light southeast winds.
The upper level high will shift eastwards a bit Monday and
especially Tuesday as a system moves by to the north of the area.
Although the better dynamics and moisture will remain to the west of
the area, ensemble guidance hints at some shower potential on
Tuesday. Increased pops to mentionable for most of northeast OK on
Tuesday morning to cover this possibility, though any impacts
would likely be minimal.

Warmer and dry weather resumes for the mid to late week period as
another deep trough settles into the west with strong ridging
towards the Great Lakes. The forecast area will sit in between these
systems, but closer to the ridge, with mild southerly flow pushing
highs back close to 80 F. The entire pattern becomes more
progressive towards next weekend with a fairly good ensemble signal
to move the western trough into the region. Presumably this would
mean cooler and wetter conditions return at that time, but details
are scarce given the long range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR flight conditions and light winds will continue the next
24 hours across the area. Only a bit of high cirrus clouds
are expected. There is some potential for limited wind shear
at or below 2,000 feet during the late night hours near and around
KFSM, but right now not enough potential to include the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  80  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   55  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   55  81  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   49  80  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   48  79  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   53  79  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   54  81  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   54  79  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
F10   55  81  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   54  81  53  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...08

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion